Some homes are sitting longer. Buyers are getting inspections or better terms in situations where that was harder before. FHA and VA financing can have a better shot.
Depending on the week, the Rochester housing market can feel noticeably softer. So, is Rochester becoming a buyer’s market?
Not yet, but I think there is a more useful question to ask: What would actually have to change before we should call it one?
What Does a Buyer’s Market Actually Mean?
A buyer’s market happens when there are enough homes available relative to buyer demand that buyers consistently have more choice and negotiating leverage.
Redfin’s explanation of a buyer’s market uses six or more months of housing supply as a traditional benchmark. Realtor.com’s buyer’s-market guide also points to growing inventory, longer market times and increased negotiating power as signs that conditions favor buyers.
I would not get too hung up on one magic number. Local markets behave differently, and buyers can gain leverage well before six months of supply.
The bigger point is that a true buyer’s market should show up across several indicators, not just one.
Rochester Is Still a Seller-Favored Market
We have been following the changing buyer experience in our recent Rochester housing market update. The distinction we keep coming back to is that buyers can gain opportunities without gaining control of the overall market.
July’s Monroe County numbers make that pretty clear.
Single-family homes had only 0.8 months of supply. The median home sold in eight days, and sellers received a median 118.5% of asking price.
Those numbers still describe an extreme seller-favored market.
That does not mean every home is getting 15 offers or that buyers have no leverage. It means certain properties and certain weeks can feel different without the overall Rochester market having shifted.
What Would Actually Have to Change?
A real shift would need to be broader and last longer than what we have seen so far.
1. Inventory Would Need to Keep Growing
A few strong listing weeks are not enough. Inventory would need to rise and stay higher across different price ranges and parts of Monroe County.
Buyers need consistently more choices before the overall balance starts to change.
2. Months of Supply Would Need to Move Significantly Higher
July was at 0.8 months of supply. This means that it would take less than 1 month to sell out of all of the homes available on the market, if another home wasn’t listed from that point on. 4-6 months is considered balanced for most markets, and we are far from that.
We do not need to reach exactly six months before buyers start gaining meaningful leverage. But there is a huge distance between 0.8 months and anything resembling balanced conditions.
If supply keeps building, that would be one of the clearest signs that buyers are actually gaining ground.
3. More Homes Would Need to Sit Longer
We are already seeing more listings reach 20+ days on market, and that is worth watching.
There is an important difference between some homes sitting because of price, condition or another issue vs the overall market slowing down.
If properly priced and well-presented homes also start taking consistently longer to sell, that tells us something more meaningful is happening.
4. Sellers Would Need to Lose Some Pricing Power
This should eventually show up in fewer bidding wars, lower list-to-sale ratios, more price reductions, seller concessions and repair negotiations.
We are already seeing some of that on individual properties. The question is whether it becomes common across a larger portion of the market.
That is when we would have stronger evidence that leverage is actually shifting.
5. Buyer Demand Would Need to Stay Softer
Buyer demand has been inconsistent throughout the spring and summer. One weekend feels busy. Another feels quiet.
That is not enough to establish a trend.
We would need softer demand to last long enough that inventory builds, homes take longer to sell and sellers adjust their expectations.
There Is a Lot of Middle Ground
Real estate markets do not simply flip from seller’s market to buyer’s market.
There is a lot in between:
- Extreme seller’s market - softer seller’s market - balanced market - buyer’s market
- That may be the most important part of this conversation.
- Rochester does not need to go from 0.8 months of supply all the way to a traditional buyer’s market before the buying experience improves. Buyers can gradually gain more time, inspections, financing flexibility and negotiating opportunities along the way.
- Sellers can still have the overall advantage while giving up some of the extreme leverage they had before.
What matters is that Rochester can get significantly better for buyers without becoming a buyer’s market.
Is Rochester Actually Shifting?
Maybe. There is enough happening that I am paying close attention. However, I do think we are a long way from calling this a shift to a buyer’s market.
Some homes and some weeks absolutely feel different. We are seeing terms accepted that would have been much harder to get through during the most extreme years of this seller’s market. Then the right home comes along and receives immediate, aggressive competition.
We may not know a true market shift happened until we can look backward and see that these changes lasted.
That is why I am less interested in trying to call the exact moment the market changes and more interested in watching the indicators that would tell us it is happening.
August Will Give Us More Information
August Monroe County market data comes out next week. I will be watching active inventory, months of supply, median days on market, list-price received and new listings.
If those indicators continue moving toward buyers, that gives us more evidence that the market is softening. If they reverse, some of what we experienced this summer may prove to have been seasonal or temporary.
Stay tuned, we will break down the August numbers in another couple of weeks.
What Should Buyers and Sellers Do Right Now?
Buyers should not wait for someone to officially declare a buyer’s market. Opportunities already exist on homes sitting longer, properties with price reductions, listings that missed their first negotiation window and situations with less competition.
Sellers should not panic because buyers have gained some flexibility. The Rochester market still favors sellers, but low inventory does not guarantee every listing a great result. Pricing, preparation, presentation and the early response from buyers matter.
Rochester does not need to become a buyer’s market for buyers to find meaningful opportunities. A few softer weeks do not make it one either.
A true shift would require sustained changes in inventory, market time, seller pricing power and buyer demand. We are not there yet, but there is enough changing that the next several market reports are worth paying attention to.
August data comes out next week. We’ll look at what changed and whether the numbers are moving us any closer.
