Why Monroe County Became the #2 Hottest Market in America — And What It Actually Means for 2026

Every year the ranking sites publish their "hottest markets" lists, and every year most local agents treat them as marketing fodder. I'm going to do something different with this one: tell you what those numbers actually felt like to execute on, deal by deal, through 22 transactions last year.

The short version: the rankings are real. They are also incomplete. What they don't capture is that Monroe County is in a specific, narrow window — one where sellers still hold the leverage, but buyers who know what they're doing are starting to claw some of it back.

If you're thinking about selling, buying, or sitting on the sidelines in 2026, you need to understand what's actually driving this market, not the headline. So here it is.

The rankings, and what they leave out

Four separate national indices put Monroe County in the top tier of American real estate markets last quarter:

• Realtor.com: #2 hottest housing market in America for 2026.
• National Association of Realtors: #5 nationally for competitiveness.
• Zillow: #1 in their "strong seller's markets" index.
• Redfin: Top-10 nationally for bidding-war intensity.

These are not cherry-picked results. Four independent data teams, four different methodologies, same conclusion. Rochester is a top-5 market in the country right now.

What the rankings don't tell you is why. The national narrative is still stuck on coastal cities and Sun Belt growth. Rochester doesn't look like either of those. We don't have the tech migration Austin had. We don't have the retiree inflow Florida has. We have something more durable and, honestly, more interesting.

What's actually driving it

Three factors, in order of weight:

1. Affordability relative to the rest of the Northeast. A 3-bedroom colonial in Penfield trades in the low-to-mid $400s. The same house in Westchester is $1.2M. The same house in suburban Boston is $900K-plus. Remote-work families from higher-cost Northeast markets are making the math work by moving here, and they're still paying well above list.

2. Structurally low inventory, not a speculative bubble. Monroe County has roughly 1.4 months of supply. A balanced market is six. We are not flooded with speculators or flippers — we have too few houses for too many qualified buyers. That's a completely different dynamic than 2006 and a completely different risk profile than a lot of Sun Belt markets.

3. A buyer pool with real money. Average loan-to-value on my 2025 closings was 78%. That means buyers are putting down meaningful equity. These aren't stretched-to-the-limit FHA buyers piling on contingencies. They're mostly dual-income professionals with 20%-plus down, locked and loaded.

What this looked like, transaction by transaction

Out of 22 closings last year, the pattern was consistent enough that I can give you the shape of the average deal:

• List-to-offer timeline: 4-7 days. If a home sat past a week, something was wrong with the listing — usually price or photography.
• Offers per listing: Median was 6. The highest was 14 on a well-priced ranch in Webster. The lowest was 2 on an over-improved home we intentionally priced at the ceiling.
• Over-list percentage: Median 18.7% over ask. One closed 27% over. The only one that went under ask was a distressed seller who had to accept a weaker offer to close fast.
• Contingency waivers: 64% of winning buyers waived inspection contingencies entirely. 41% waived appraisal gaps up to $15K.

If you are a seller in Monroe County right now, those numbers tell you the game you're playing. If you are a buyer, they tell you what you have to be prepared to do to win.

Why 2026 is different from 2025

Here's where the headlines miss the story, and where my transaction data is starting to show something the rankings won't pick up for another two quarters.

In Q1 of this year, the average number of offers per listing in my business dropped from a median of 6 to a median of 4. Over-list percentages softened from 19.4% to 16.1%. Inspection waivers dropped from 64% to 52%.

The market is not cooling. The market is normalizing. Buyers are still winning, sellers are still getting strong outcomes, but the frenzy of late 2024 and early 2025 is easing into something more sustainable.

This matters for two groups:

• If you're a seller who's been waiting for the peak — the peak was Q4 2024 through Q2 2025. We're past it. Prices are still climbing but deceleration is real. Every quarter you wait from here forward trades slightly less leverage for slightly more inventory competition.
• If you're a buyer who's been waiting for it to crash — it's not going to. The inventory constraint is structural, not cyclical. What you'll get in 2026 is slightly less competition, not cheaper homes. Use the window.

Neighborhood divergence is widening

The other thing the rankings miss is that "Monroe County" is not a single market. It's a dozen. And the gap between the strongest and weakest submarkets is widening, not narrowing.

Based on 2025 closings across my business and publicly available MLS data, here's the rough picture:

• Pittsford, Brighton, and parts of Penfield: Still running 20%-plus over list. Inventory under a month. Buyers from outside the region driving the top end.
• Webster, Fairport, Victor: Strong seller activity but tempering. 15-18% over list. Inventory 1-2 months. Healthy market for both sides.
• Greece, Irondequoit, parts of Rochester city: Flattening faster. 5-10% over list at most. Inventory climbing past 2 months in some ZIPs. First-time-buyer entry points.
• Outer suburbs (Hamlin, Churchville, Spencerport): Most normalized. Closer to list price. Inventory approaching 3 months. Opportunity territory for buyers who can go a little farther out.

If you're making a move in 2026, the submarket matters more than the county. A seller in Pittsford should move differently than a seller in Greece. A buyer in Brighton faces a completely different environment than a buyer in Hamlin.

What I'd tell a client today

Every week I have a version of this conversation, so let me just put the answer here for the record.

If you're a seller: Move this year. The market still favors you strongly, but every quarter from here the leverage shifts a little. A house worth $450,000 in April is likely to be priced at $460,000 in October — but it may sit for three weeks instead of three days, and you may concede an inspection or appraisal gap you wouldn't have had to in April. Get in front of the softening, not behind it.

If you're a buyer: Stop waiting. The window where you have some negotiating leverage back is opening in Q2 and Q3 of 2026. Get pre-approved, get clear on the submarket that fits your life, and be ready to move fast when the right house appears. You won't get 2019 prices back. You might get 2025 prices back, briefly, if you move with intent.

If you're an investor: The rental math still works in specific pockets of Rochester city and the near-east suburbs. Cash-on-cash returns of 7-10% are still attainable if you buy right and manage well. I'm closing investor deals monthly and there's still runway. I'll do a full breakdown in an upcoming post.

The bottom line

Monroe County is a top-5 market in America right now, and the rankings are right about that. What the rankings don't show you is that we are in a specific, narrow window where sellers still dominate but the edge is softening, buyers are starting to reclaim a little leverage, and submarket differences are widening.

If you're moving in 2026 — on either side of the transaction — the strategy is different than it was in 2024. The playbook from a year ago won't win you the deal it would have won then.

I'm in this market every day, executing these transactions, reading the MLS, talking to other agents, tracking offer patterns. If you want a read on your specific situation — your ZIP, your price point, your timeline — just reach out. No discovery call. No pressure. I'll tell you what I'm actually seeing.

Because the headlines are one thing. The transactions are another. I'd rather you base your biggest financial decision of the year on the second.